Fly to quality

Fly to quality

L’analyse des contrats de taux montre que le mouvement de hausse des contrats (baisse des taux) devrait se poursuivre au moins jusqu’à la mi-décembre. Ceci signifie que le mouvement de baisse sur les actions devrait également se poursuivre. En réalité, c’est le mouvement de baisse des actions qui produit la hausse des contrats.

Analyse du contrat Euro-Bund

Long term: not bullish

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands spread is minimal. Stochastic and MACD are not yet oversold. LM (111.08) is a strong support and MQ (116.44) is our first resistance.

On a monthly basis, the status for our 7 – 23 moving averages is a bearish non-crossover. Our stochastic is oversold (bullish non-crossover) but the MACD will be oversold 3 periods after our stochastic. The main trend is not bullish. PM (116.22) is our first resistance.

Idea: bearish as long as PM (116.22) = resistance.

Medium term: rise

On a weekly basis, a bullish non-crossover is the status for our 7 – 23 weekly moving averages. Stochastic and MACD are oversold. A bullish Australian pattern is in progress. Rise as long as our MACD is not overbought (3 periods or more).

Idea: higher

Short term: bullish pre-parallels pattern

On a daily basis, a bullish pre-parallels pattern is in progress. As long as our MACD is not overbought, a bullish trend will continue.

Idea: Bollinger bands spread will continue to increase.

Conclusion: higher for some weeks.

Source :Philippe Cahen ATDMF