Le pic pétrolier ? c’est maintenant, dit l’AIE

Alors, le pic, c’est pour quand ? Entre les pétroliers qui prévoient 20 ou 30 ans de ressources disponibles, et les experts comme Campbell qui affirment qu’il a déjà lieu, voici l’Agence Internationale de l’Energie qui prévoit que l’offre va s’effondrer face à la demande d’ici cinq ans.

World will face oil crunch ‘in five years’

Financial Times, 9 juillet 2007, via De Defensa

(...) »The IEA said that supply was falling faster than expected in mature areas, such as the North Sea or Mexico, while projects in new provinces such as the Russian Far East, faced long delays. Meanwhile consumption is accelerating on strong economic growth in emerging countries.

»The problem is exacerbated by the fact that supply from non-members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will increase at an annual pace of 1 per cent, or less than half the rate of the demand rise.

»The widening gap between rising consumption and lagging non-Opec supply will force Opec to sharply increase its production in the next five years.

»Lawrence Eagles, head of the IEA’s oil market division, told the Financial Times : “If we get to the point were there is insufficient supply, the only way to balance the market will be through higher prices and a drop in demand.” »

IEA - global ’oil supply crunch’ looming

Energy Digital, 10 juillet 2007

The world is facing an oil supply ‘crunch’ within five years as global oil demand outstrips supply, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned.

In its Medium-Term Oil Market Report, the IEA, which advises 26 industrialised countries, said demand will rise by an average 2.2 percent a year between 2007 and 2012, up from a previous medium-term forecast of 2 percent.

The resultant world oil supply “crunch” will force up prices to record levels and increase the west’s dependence on oil cartel Opec, the IEA said.

The agency said that “oil looks extremely tight in five years time” and there are “prospects of even tighter natural gas markets at the turn of the decade”.

The IEA said that supply was falling faster than expected in mature areas, such as the North Sea or Mexico, while projects in new provinces such as the Russian Far East, faced long delays.

Consumption in emerging countries is accelerating on strong economic growth

At the same time, supply from non-members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will increase at less than half the rate of the demand rise, at an annual rate of one percent.

The IEA also predicts that UK oil production is set to suffer a dramatic decline from today’s 1.7 million barrels a day to just 1 million b/d in 2012.

The IEA Medium Term Oil Market Report came as oil is approaching last year’s record high. Brent crude oil on Monday rose 72 cents to a 11-month high of $76.34 a barrel.

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Publication originale Energy Digital,FT